August 20, 2015
The Presidential race is heating up and the voters are besieged with a plethora of polls and political opinions about what is going to happen. But here is where you will get the truth – at least a 90% probability of the truth. This is because the following statements are not based on wishful thinking but rather an analysis of money, electoral college mathematics and demographic trends.
1. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. The reason is simple: Money. She has raised over $100 million, mainly from the Wall Street Welfare State and the pantheistic secular Left. No one else is even close. Bernie Sanders – on of the few decent persons in politics – is going nowhere. His supporters do not despise Clinton and will quickly get on the train when it becomes obvious she will be the nominee. The scandals over classified e-mails and corruption in the Clinton Foundation will seem like background noise to the average voter and most voters think Benghazi is a type of Japanese tree. Democratic elders such as Joe Biden, Al Gore or John Kerry will not jump into the race unless there is a carefully choreographed Hillary exit. This will only occur if Hillary tanks in the polls. At present, almost all national polls show Hillary defeating any Republican by 5 to 10 points.
2. Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee and Ted Cruz will be his main challenger. The reason is simple: Money. Bush has raised over $100,000,000 – mostly from the Wall Street Welfare State and family connections. What is less know is that Cruz has raised over $50 million – some from huge donors but a lot from small donors.
Cruz has carefully avoided criticism of the present front runner, Donald Trump. Trump will peak at about 35% at then start to fall. The reason is simple: Money. Trump has none and his net worth is probably less than most people reading this article. Hopelessly over leveraged, he will have to sell assets in order to raise the billion dollars he needs to compete. He doesn’t have the money and his supporters are mostly frustrated middle class and lower middle class voters who have watched helplessly as the Government and Wall Street Welfare State have destroyed their way of life. They cannot afford to donate to Trump. Thus, Trump will never be able to build the necessary infrastructure to get his people to the polls. Cruz will be the beneficiary.
As Cruz rises, an alarmed political class along with the liberal media will slowly dismember him. He will be portrayed as rude, arrogant and out of the mainstream. Whether this is true or not will be irrelevant. Most rank-and-file Republicans will then conclude that Cruz is unelectable and default to Bush. Furthermore, a battle between Cruz and Clinton will be ugly and potentially violent. The country does not have the stomach for it.
3. Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. This is simple math and demographics. There are 538 electoral votes and 270 are necessary to win. Baring a seismic shift, a random Democrat from the phone book receives 242 electoral votes and a random Republican receives 191. The endless campaign of 2012 resulted only in a two state shift from 2008. Both Indiana and North Carolina moved to the Republican column. Even if a Republican manages to win the swing states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia (Obama won all three of these states twice) – the Democrats still win (272-266). Another state is necessary. Republicans are having increasing difficulty with Hispanic voters and Donald Trump’s recent pronouncements on immigration will not help. Donald Trump piñatas are now the rage in the Hispanic community. As Virginia and Florida have become increasingly Hispanic, it will be difficult to push these states to the Republican column.
Another problem is that the voters simply don’t want another Bush. This combined will Jeb Bush’s treating his campaign like a genteel disagreement about tee times at a country club means that the vicious, amoral, and driven Hillary will eat him alive. As a hard core Republican, I hope I am wrong – but I’m usually not.