When I was in first grade, I was mistakenly given an eighth-grade portion of food that I could not possibly finish. As I was presenting my uneaten portion to the woman at the garbage disposal, a redoubtable nun towering over me said, “Joseph, the pagan babies in Africa are starving and you’re wasting that good food.” I responded, “Sister, if I eat the food, the pagan babies still won’t get it.” Wap! The nun backhanded me across my face and the tray went flying. Many people who attended Catholic schools in the 1960s can recount similar stories. But on the balance, these schools did an excellent job. At my grade school, even the slowest child in the class could read, write and do basic math by the eighth grade. We learned right from wrong and learned to love our country. To this day, I can still recite most of the Gettysburg address. Connecticut is trying to redress historical racial inequalities and there would be no faster way than to allow minorities to … [Read more...]
Predictions for 2021
Once again, it is time to embarrass myself and predict what will happen in 2021. But unlike most pundits who hope you will forget their previous prognostications, I will review predictions for 2020. 1. The stock market will gain around 5%. Correct (Dow up 6% but S&P up 15%). 2. Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee. Incorrect, but he was robbed 3. President Trump will win reelection. Incorrect, but he was robbed. 4. The Republicans will hold the Senate. Technically correct but this could change with the Georgia races. 5. The Republicans will retake the House. Incorrect 6. LSU will win the national football college championship. Correct 7. The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl. Incorrect, the Kansas City Chiefs won. As usual, my predictions are … [Read more...]
Pollsters Distorted President Trump’s Support
Just as in 2016, the 2020 polls underestimated President Trump’s support. While polling has become more difficult in the age of cell phones and caller-ID, it is mathematically impossible not to conclude that these polls were either deliberately inaccurate or conducted by incompetents. Polling is based on the mathematical disciplines of statistics and probability. For example, let’s say you flip a coin four times. Although, there is a 50% chance of getting heads per flip, the actual chance that one gets exactly two heads with four flips is only 38%. There is a 12% chance of getting all heads or all tails and a 50% chance of getting three tails or three heads. But the more you flip the coin, the greater the chance that the number of heads will be closer to 50%. Furthermore, the chance of the number of heads deviating from 50% greatly decreases. For example, if you flip a coin 100 times, there is a 95% chance the number of heads will be between 44% and 56%. But if you flip a coin 1,000 times, there is a 95% chance that the number of heads will … [Read more...]
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