October 2, 2018

      Many people on both sides of the aisle are amazed by the virulent passions being stirred by the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. They shouldn’t be. In fact, given the stakes, it is surprising civil.

      This battle is not about sexual harassment, binge drinking, judicial qualifications or the #MeToo movement. It is about raw power. It is about who makes policy: elected representatives or power-hungry judges and bureaucrats.

      The establishments of both political parties had reached a harmonious consensus: the Democrats would satisfy their contributors by using the judiciary and bureaucracy to promote abortion, gay rights, secularism, pornography and anti-global warming initiatives while the Republicans would satisfy their contributors by allowing corporate America, health insurance companies and the Wall Street Welfare State to pillage the middle class. Everyone would live happily ever after in their Manhattan condos, Georgetown townhouses and California palaces. Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or John Kasich – it didn’t matter which one – would preside over this farce.

      Then disaster struck: Donald Trump won. Breaking Republican tradition, President Trump actually delivered on what he promised during his campaign – appointing judges to the Supreme Court who interpret the law rather than make it up. The Democrats were outraged. The Republicans were getting their corporate tax breaks, deregulation of energy production, partial Obamacare repeal and a booming stock market. The Democrats were getting squat.

      Thus, when judicial conservative Brett Kavanaugh was nominated to replace the moderate swing vote, Justice Kennedy, the excrement hit the fan. Kavanaugh had to be destroyed at all costs. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Kavanaugh had sterling qualifications and had the savvy to give vague answers on controversial issues. So the Democrats accused him of attempting to rape a woman, exposing himself to another woman, and organizing and participating in gang rapes.

      They found the perfect victim in Dr. Christine Ford, a middle-aged psychologist well-versed in the pseudoscience that passes for some theories in modern psychiatry. She accused Kavanaugh of attempting to rape her when she was 15 years old but – at the time of this writing – cannot find a single person or piece of evidence to collaborate her story. Astonishingly, she does not remember where this happened, when it happened or how she was transported to and from where the alleged incident occurred. Furthermore, she used her medical background to explain the neurobiology of how the emotional trauma of such an event allowed her to obscure memories that could acquit Kavanaugh, but retain the memories that condemn him.

      She hit a raw nerve. Many women have memories of drunken belligerent men pawing at them and are no longer willing to tolerate this behavior. They have focused their rage on Kavanaugh – guilty or not.

      From a political point, none of this matters. If Dr. Ford were to say tomorrow that she made the whole thing up, not one Democratic vote would change. Furthermore, the Democrats would have done this to any conservative. Cultural conservatives preferred Amy Coney Barrett, a 46-year-old judge who has expressed skepticism of Roe versus Wade. But since she lacks Ivy League credentials, the Democrats would have accused this attractive woman of sleeping with powerful men to advance her career while liberal Hollywood starlets and female journalists expressed disgust at such behavior. Whether it was true or not would be irrelevant. Judge Kavanaugh hit the nail on the head when he said, “This is not about advise and consent; it is about search and destroy.”

      Perhaps the FBI investigation will find evidence that Dr. Ford is telling the truth – or other damning evidence against Judge Kavanaugh – resulting in his withdrawal. But if it does not, his confirmation will hinge on the votes of two moderate Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. It will take tremendous political courage for these women to support Judge Kavanaugh. If they do not, they will become instant media darlings with the prospect of huge book deals and dozens of honorary degrees.

      Kavanaugh will be destroyed. He will probably lose his present judgeship. His family will be ostracized and his daughters will be reminded constantly that their Daddy is a rapist. No one will let him coach their daughter’s basketball team. Dr. Ford will become a cultural icon and the chortling victorious Hollywood will film movies depicting a drunken teenaged Kavanaugh attacking the naïve teenaged Dr. Ford.

      But no one knows how President Trump will react if Kavanaugh is voted down. He is cunning and ruthless. With the Mueller investigation hovering over him, he will not get favorable rulings from a Supreme Court that is divided 4 to 4 if he were to be subpoenaed or indicted. Not having Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court imperils his Presidency.

      He may decide to put all his political capital to increasing the number of Republican senators. Both Democratic Senators Claire McCaskill (Missouri) and Joe Donnelly (Indiana) are now behind in the polls since they declared opposition to Judge Kavanaugh. If the Republicans pick up enough Senate seats, President Trump could renominate Kavanaugh after the election, when the votes are assured. If that happens, Murkowski and Collins can either switch parties, or be assigned to committees that oversee latrine clean ups on the Capitol Mall. Stay tuned.

August 16, 2018

      The results are in from the most fascinating Republican primary in recent memory and the take home message is that Connecticut Republicans were willing to roll the dice. They voted for non-traditional candidates who have little interest in reaching across the aisle, but plan engage the Democrats in a no holds barred battle to determine whether the state remains habitable for the private sector middle class. Here are the most salient points.

      1. Conservative candidates won. Bob Stefanowski said he would repeal the state income tax and did not back down from this position. His lawn signs said one thing: “CUT TAXES.” With this message, he won 30% of the vote in a five-way primary and the majority of the towns. Most of Stefanowski’s supporters know that repealing the state income tax is mathematically impossible, but they voted for him anyway because his heart was in the right place. His even more conservative partner is the winner of the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Joe Markley, who received almost 50% of the vote against the more moderate Republicans, Jayme Stevenson and Erin Stewart. Ms. Stevenson, the First Selectman of Darien, even resorted to calling herself a conservative towards the end of her campaign. The three gubernatorial candidates who never held political office – Stefanowski, Stemerman and Obsitnik – combined to win 60% of the vote, easily out polling the establishment politicians, Tim Herbst and Mark Boughton. What is interesting about this number, 60%, is that it is close to 58%, the percentage that Donald Trump received in the 2016 primary. Which leads to the second point.

      2. The Republican Party did not run away from Donald Trump. Stefanowski won because he – like Trump – is both a successful business man and alpha male. He made little attempt to hide his contempt for politics as usual. David Stemerman, in his final push, saw this and ran advertisements saying that he actually voted for Trump. He outspent Stefanowski two to one but to no avail. Many party insiders ran away from Trump which is why they refused to be delegates for Trump at the Republican Convention. One did not, Susan Hatfield, the candidate for Attorney General. An unabashed Trump supporter and delegate, she won her race with an astounding 79%. Her debate with her Democratic opponent William Tong should be so entertaining that they could put it on Pay-Per-View.

      3. The antiquated Convention System was shown to be useless. Stefanowski wisely realized he had no chance of winning the Convention or even securing the requisite 15% to be placed on the ballot. Instead he ran television advertisements in the spring and increased his name recognition. He then collected enough signatures to petition his way on the ballot. Meanwhile Herbst and Boughton were speaking to town committees in search of delegates. But outside of their political bailiwicks, nobody had the slightest idea who they were. The convention was held in May and the money released to Herbst and Boughton by the Citizens Election Program did not enter their campaign coffers until June. It was too little too late. Stefanowski and Stemerman – who also bypassed the Convention and self-financed – had large head starts in name recognition and had scooped up all the primo TV and radio spots. Herbst and Boughton could not catch up.

      4. The Democrats have shifted to the left and thrown down the gauntlet too. Their gubernatorial nominee, Ned Lamont, has publically stated he will raise taxes and institute tolls. He won by 81%. An upstart liberal Jahana Hayes, easily defeated the Convention-endorsed establishment- candidate Mary Glassman to become the 5th Congressional district (northwestern Connecticut) candidate. But the most remarkable race occurred in West Hartford. When Jillian Gilchrest was refused a place on the ballot by Democratic insiders, she thumbed her nose at them and petitioned her way onto the ballot. She then proceeded to defeat a popular sitting 12-term assemblyman, Andy Fleischmann. Even if you are not a hard core liberal like Gilchrest, you gotta love this woman. In the rigged game of Connecticut politics, this hardly ever happens!

      So those of you who are political junkies will be in seventh heaven watching the upcoming battles. The stakes are high. The Democrats are determined to keep their power and their taxpayer-funded sinecures. The Republicans are determined to make the state habitable for the rest of us. Get out the popcorn, a glass of cognac and stay tuned.