Once again, it is time to embarrass myself and predict what will happen in 2021. But unlike most pundits who hope you will forget their previous prognostications, I will review predictions for 2020. 1. The stock market will gain around 5%. Correct (Dow up 6% but S&P up 15%). 2. Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee. Incorrect, but he was robbed 3. President Trump will win reelection. Incorrect, but he was robbed. 4. The Republicans will hold the Senate. Technically correct but this could change with the Georgia races. 5. The Republicans will retake the House. Incorrect 6. LSU will win the national football college championship. Correct 7. The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl. Incorrect, the Kansas City Chiefs won. As usual, my predictions are … [Read more...]
Pollsters Distorted President Trump’s Support
Just as in 2016, the 2020 polls underestimated President Trump’s support. While polling has become more difficult in the age of cell phones and caller-ID, it is mathematically impossible not to conclude that these polls were either deliberately inaccurate or conducted by incompetents. Polling is based on the mathematical disciplines of statistics and probability. For example, let’s say you flip a coin four times. Although, there is a 50% chance of getting heads per flip, the actual chance that one gets exactly two heads with four flips is only 38%. There is a 12% chance of getting all heads or all tails and a 50% chance of getting three tails or three heads. But the more you flip the coin, the greater the chance that the number of heads will be closer to 50%. Furthermore, the chance of the number of heads deviating from 50% greatly decreases. For example, if you flip a coin 100 times, there is a 95% chance the number of heads will be between 44% and 56%. But if you flip a coin 1,000 times, there is a 95% chance that the number of heads will … [Read more...]
Political Arbitrage Can Soothe Our Polarized Country (Satire)
Do you despise President Trump so much that you are bewildered that he received 63,000,000 votes when you can’t fathom how he received even one? Do you seethe with rage when he threatens to ignore the election results because of “fraudulent” mail-in ballots? Are you apoplectic that the antiquated Electoral College enabled him to become president after losing by 3,000,000 votes? Does your blood pressure surge to stratospheric levels as he as he gives lifetime judicial appointment to conservative ideologues that are barely out of diapers? Are you a hard core Trumpster who is bewildered that virtually every poll shows your man is about to go down? How can anyone vote out a president that presided over three years of peace and prosperity until he had bad luck with COVID? How could anyone vote for a corrupt career politician that has flip-flopped on every issue in the past 47 years? How can anyone vote for someone who wants to confiscate your guns, defund the police and allow rioters to threaten your family as your 911 call goes to an … [Read more...]
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