Just as in 2016, the 2020 polls underestimated President Trump’s support. While polling has become more difficult in the age of cell phones and caller-ID, it is mathematically impossible not to conclude that these polls were either deliberately inaccurate or conducted by incompetents. Polling is based on the mathematical disciplines of statistics and probability. For example, let’s say you flip a coin four times. Although, there is a 50% chance of getting heads per flip, the actual chance that one gets exactly two heads with four flips is only 38%. There is a 12% chance of getting all heads or all tails and a 50% chance of getting three tails or three heads. But the more you flip the coin, the greater the chance that the number of heads will be closer to 50%. Furthermore, the chance of the number of heads deviating from 50% greatly decreases. For example, if you flip a coin 100 times, there is a 95% chance the number of heads will be between 44% and 56%. But if you flip a coin 1,000 times, there is a 95% chance that the number of heads will … [Read more...]
Political Arbitrage Can Soothe Our Polarized Country (Satire)
Do you despise President Trump so much that you are bewildered that he received 63,000,000 votes when you can’t fathom how he received even one? Do you seethe with rage when he threatens to ignore the election results because of “fraudulent” mail-in ballots? Are you apoplectic that the antiquated Electoral College enabled him to become president after losing by 3,000,000 votes? Does your blood pressure surge to stratospheric levels as he as he gives lifetime judicial appointment to conservative ideologues that are barely out of diapers? Are you a hard core Trumpster who is bewildered that virtually every poll shows your man is about to go down? How can anyone vote out a president that presided over three years of peace and prosperity until he had bad luck with COVID? How could anyone vote for a corrupt career politician that has flip-flopped on every issue in the past 47 years? How can anyone vote for someone who wants to confiscate your guns, defund the police and allow rioters to threaten your family as your 911 call goes to an … [Read more...]
Energy Policy is Rendering Connecticut a Third World Country
As a volunteer physician in Haiti, one of the first Creole sentences I learned was “Pa gen currant.” “There is no power.” Haiti’s power supply was unreliable and outages were common, which is why the wealthy had their own generators. Plutocrats, environmentalists and feckless politicians are now replicating Haiti’s problems here in Connecticut. This was highlighted by the hurricane Isaias in which hundreds of thousands lost power for over a week. But even before this event, consumers were complaining of outrageous electrical bills and in my Fairfield neighborhood, we had lost power four times during the two-week period before the hurricane for inexplicable reasons. After Eversource finally deigned to reconnect our power a week after Isaias, we lost power again. Much of the anger has been focused on the executives at Eversource, who are raking in multimillion-dollar salaries in spite of their legendary incompetence. But who enabled these grifters in the first place? It was our political class who are now feigning outrage over the system they … [Read more...]
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