August 20, 2015
The Presidential race is heating up and the voters are besieged with a plethora of polls and political opinions about what is going to happen. But here is where you will get the truth – at least a 90% probability of the truth. This is because the following statements are not based on wishful thinking but rather an analysis of money, electoral college mathematics and demographic trends.
1. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. The reason is simple: Money. She has raised over $100 million, mainly from the Wall Street Welfare State and the pantheistic secular Left. No one else is even close. Bernie Sanders – on of the few decent persons in politics – is going nowhere. His supporters do not despise Clinton and will quickly get on the train when it becomes obvious she will be the nominee. The scandals over classified e-mails and corruption in the Clinton Foundation will seem like background noise to the average voter and most voters think Benghazi is a type of Japanese tree. Democratic elders such as Joe Biden, Al Gore or John Kerry will not jump into the race unless there is a carefully choreographed Hillary exit. This will only occur if Hillary tanks in the polls. At present, almost all national polls show Hillary defeating any Republican by 5 to 10 points.
2. Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee and Ted Cruz will be his main challenger. The reason is simple: Money. Bush has raised over $100,000,000 – mostly from the Wall Street Welfare State and family connections. What is less know is that Cruz has raised over $50 million – some from huge donors but a lot from small donors.
Cruz has carefully avoided criticism of the present front runner, Donald Trump. Trump will peak at about 35% at then start to fall. The reason is simple: Money. Trump has none and his net worth is probably less than most people reading this article. Hopelessly over leveraged, he will have to sell assets in order to raise the billion dollars he needs to compete. He doesn’t have the money and his supporters are mostly frustrated middle class and lower middle class voters who have watched helplessly as the Government and Wall Street Welfare State have destroyed their way of life. They cannot afford to donate to Trump. Thus, Trump will never be able to build the necessary infrastructure to get his people to the polls. Cruz will be the beneficiary.
As Cruz rises, an alarmed political class along with the liberal media will slowly dismember him. He will be portrayed as rude, arrogant and out of the mainstream. Whether this is true or not will be irrelevant. Most rank-and-file Republicans will then conclude that Cruz is unelectable and default to Bush. Furthermore, a battle between Cruz and Clinton will be ugly and potentially violent. The country does not have the stomach for it.
3. Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. This is simple math and demographics. There are 538 electoral votes and 270 are necessary to win. Baring a seismic shift, a random Democrat from the phone book receives 242 electoral votes and a random Republican receives 191. The endless campaign of 2012 resulted only in a two state shift from 2008. Both Indiana and North Carolina moved to the Republican column. Even if a Republican manages to win the swing states of Ohio, Florida and Virginia (Obama won all three of these states twice) – the Democrats still win (272-266). Another state is necessary. Republicans are having increasing difficulty with Hispanic voters and Donald Trump’s recent pronouncements on immigration will not help. Donald Trump piñatas are now the rage in the Hispanic community. As Virginia and Florida have become increasingly Hispanic, it will be difficult to push these states to the Republican column.
Another problem is that the voters simply don’t want another Bush. This combined will Jeb Bush’s treating his campaign like a genteel disagreement about tee times at a country club means that the vicious, amoral, and driven Hillary will eat him alive. As a hard core Republican, I hope I am wrong – but I’m usually not.
Tony Bentivegna says
Looks like Hillary but I’m thinking landslide over someone not named Bush. That family arguably assisted with the creation of the Wall St welfare state you describe, along with the bailouts and botched foreign wars. You could even say the Bushes dismantled the GOP identity completely. Allowing an unstable buffoon like Trump to belligerently take center stage just proves we know have a one party system.
Joe Markley says
I would say that money is a big thing, but it’s not the only thing, and all dollars are not equal. A candidate needn’t have the most, only enough; there’s a point at which the marginal utility of each additional dollar declines, and sharply. The McMahon campaign is a good example–I believe the volume of her mailings actually lost her votes. Modern presidential campaign history is strewn with big fundraisers who simply couldn’t connect with voters, with John Connolly perhaps the most famous example.
Which is why I’d say that, though I respect Ted Cruz, I suspect Walker and Rubio will fill out the big three with Jeb. Among those three, I think Jeb is in the weakest position, because a number of likely primary voters have a problem with him (whether it’s his name, his position on Common Core and integration, his establishment ties–justified or not, there’s a chunk that just won’t vote for him).
And money or not, Hillary may have a glass jaw. However strong he may look, if a candidate has an inherent weakness, something surprisingly small can take him out: Ed Muskie crying in a snowstorm in New Hampshire, Gary Hart being asked ‘Where’s the beef?’, George Romney using the word ‘brainwashed.’ Hillary has all her husband’s vulnerabilities (well, maybe not all of them) and none of his charm. I don’t say she’ll lose, but I don’t think she’s the lock you suggest.
Joseph Bentivegna, M.D. says
Hope you are right and I am wrong.
Kevin Koenig says
I believe a majority of American voters remember the presidency of Bill Clinton as a good time for their country. And a majority of Americans fight the urge to run to the bathroom and lose their lunch when they think back to the years of GWB in the White House. If money talks in the primaries, and Hillary faces Jeb in the general as you think, she will easily win. The Republicans will lose one or two percentage points in each future presidential election due to changing demographics and the poor message they send to voters.